< 차 례 >

1. 기조연설1

<기조연설1> “중앙은행이 할 수 있는 일과 해야 할 일” 

(What Can and Should Central Banks Do?)

로버트 타운젠드 (Robert Townsend), MIT대 교수

<기조연설2> “상품시장 불안, 성장 및 인플레이션”

(글로벌 경제는 1970년대의 스태그플레이션을 반복할 것인가?)

(Commodity Market Disruptions, Growth, and Inflation: Is the Global Economy Headed for a Repeat of the Stagflation of the 1970s?) 

신현송 (Hyun Song Shin), BIS 조사국장

2. 발표 요약 4

<1세션 논문> “복원력과 국제 통화 시스템”

(Resilience and the International Monetary System)

마커스 브루너마이어 (Markus K. Brunnermeier), 프린스턴대 교수

<2세션 논문> “OECD의 자연실업률 추정치를 이용한 실업률 이력현상 분석”

(Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate) 

로렌스 볼 (Laurence M. Ball), 존스홉킨스대 교수

<3세션 논문 1> “빚으로 진작된 수요”

(Indebted Demand)

아티프 미안 (Atif Mian), 프린스턴대 교수

<3세션 논문 2> “부유층의 저축과잉”

(The Saving Glut of the Rich)

아티프 미안 (Atif Mian), 프린스턴대 교수

<4세션 논문> “기술변화와 중앙은행”

(Technological Changes and Central Banking)

데이비드 안돌파토 (David Andolfatto), 세인트루이스연준 선임부총재 

3. 2022년 BOK 국제컨퍼런스 프로그램 15

4. 프로그램 참가자 이력사항16

5. 프로그램 참가자 사진20

1. 기조연설

<기조연설 1>

중앙은행이 할 수 있는 일과 해야 할 일

(What Can and Should Central Banks Do?)

Robert M. Townsend (MIT)

※ 발표자의 사정에 따라 현장배포 예정

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<기조연설 2>

원자재 시장 불안, 성장 및 인플레이션

(글로벌 경제는 1970년대의 스태그플레이션을 반복할 것인가?)

(Commodity Market Disruptions, Growth and Inflation:

Is the Global Economy Headed for a Repeat of the Stagflation of the 1970s?)

Hyun Song Shin (Economic Advisor and Head of Research, BIS)

□  최근 원자재 가격 상승은 1970년대보다 광범위한 측면이 있으나, 유가 상승 충격이 상대적으로 제한적이며 전반적인 인플레이션 압력 또한 아직 위협적인 수준은 아님

ㅇ  세계 경제의 원유 의존도가 지속적으로 감소하여 에너지 사용량 중 원유 비중이 1970년대말 약 50%에서 2020년 30% 수준까지 하락한 반면 재생에너지 비중은 6%에서 16%로 상승^*

* 재생에너지를 통한 전력생산 비용이 기존 예상보다 크게 하락한 데 기인

□  원유 공급충격으로 인한 유가 10% 상승이 성장에 미치는 영향을 모형을 통해 분석한 결과, 8개월 시차를 두고 주요 선진국의 GDP가 약 0.5% 하락하는 것으로 추정^*

* 공급요인을 제외한 순수한 유가 상승 충격이 GDP에 미치는 효과는 제한적(0.2% 이내)이며, 농산물가격 상승 충격이 성장률을 하락시키는 효과는 0.2~0.3%

ㅇ 원자재 가격 상승 시 원자재 수입국의 GDP는 큰 폭으로 감소하며, 원자재 수출국의 경우에도 세계 경제 성장에 미치는 부정적 효과로 인해 수출단가 

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개선에 따른 수혜가 일부 상실

ㅇ  원자재 가격 상승 시 원자재 수입국의 경우 임금, 이윤, 소비, 투자 등이 모두 하락하면서 가계와 기업에 부정적인 영향을 주며, 수출국의 경우 임금은 하락하지만 기업 이윤이 크게 상승하고 투자도 증가

□  한편 동 충격이 인플레이션에 미치는 영향은 유의미하지 않은(insignificant) 결과가 도출되는데, 이는 경제성장에 미치는 부정적 효과에 기인^*

* 공급요인과 무관한 유가 및 농산물 가격 10% 상승 충격의 경우 인플레이션이 각각 0.2%, 0.4% 가량 상승

ㅇ  원자재 가격 상승은 단기적으로 수입국의 인플레이션 상승으로 이어지나, GDP에 미치는 부정적 영향이 커지면서 중기에서는 오히려 인플레이션이 하락할 수 있다는 결과가 도출

□  코로나 이후 실질금리의 움직임을 1970년대 유가 충격 기간과 비교해 보면 최근의 실질금리는 1973년 말의 1차 유가 충격 기간과 유사한 정도로 실질금리가 마이너스로 하락^*한 상태

* 선진국 실질정책금리 중위값 기준 –6 〜 - 7%까지 하락

ㅇ 1차 유가 충격 기간 –6% 내외로 하락한 실질금리가 0% 수준으로 회복하는데 약 2년의 기간이 소요

□  인플레이션 예측치는 선진국과 신흥국 모두 올해 내내 목표치보다 매우 높은 수준을 유지하다가 내년에는 목표치보다 약간 높거나(선진국) 목표치 범위내로 하락(신흥국)할 것으로 예상 

□  1990년대 이후 일반적인 경기침체기와 달리 코로나 위기 이후 자산가격은 상승하였으며 가계부채도 신흥국을 중심으로 상승 

□  이러한 여건들을 감안하면서 향후 정책 정상화를 통해 경제를 연착륙 시킬 수 있을 것인가는 가계나 기업이 인플레이션을 의사결정에 반영하기 전에 인플레이션을 얼마나 빠르게 이전의 낮은 수준으로 회복(restoring low inflation quickly) 시킬 수 있는가에 달려 있음

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2. 발표 요약 

<1세션 논문>

복원력과 국제 통화 시스템

(Resilience and the International Monetary System)

Markus K. Brunnermeier (Princeton University)

□  국제금융시장은 안전자산 선호 현상(flight- to- safety) 발생 시 급격한 자본유입 중단(sudden stop) 및 국가 간 대규모 자본이동 등으로 불안한 모습을 나타낼 수 있음

ㅇ 이는 소수 선진국에 의해서만 안전자산이 공급되는 현재 국제금융시장의 구조에 기인

ㅇ 특히 신흥국의 경우 동 현상으로 선진국으로의 급격한 자본이동, 통화가치 절하 등이 발생하며 위기가 확대될 가능성

□  이에 대응하기 위한 국제 통화 시스템 및 신흥국의 기존 정책은 주로 자본유출에 대한 대응수단^*을 마련하거나 외환보유고를 확충하는 방식(“buffer approch“)이었으나, 근본적인 해결책으로 보기는 어려움

*  IMF의 다양한 대출 제도(lending facility), 중앙은행 간 스왑라인 협약(international swap line arrangement) 등

ㅇ 대규모 외환보유액 확충 시 저금리 안전자산의 장기 보유에 따른 수익률 감소 등 유지 비용이 과다하게 발생하여 재정 여력이 감소할 가능성도 있음

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□  국제금융시장의 불안정성을 완화시키기 위한 대안으로 신흥국·개도국(EMDE)의 국채를 기초자산으로 하는 글로벌 안전자산 채권(Global Safe Bond,이하 GloSBies)을 발행하여 안전자산 공급을 다변화하는 방안(“rechanneling approach“)을 제안

ㅇ 국제 특수목적기구(SPV)가 신흥국·개도국 발행 국채를 매입하여 집합화(pooling)하고 상환 우선순위에 따라 선순위채(senior bond), 후순위채(junior bond)로 트란셰(tranche)를 분류한 후 선순위채에 GloSBie의 기능을 부여

― 후순위채 트란셰는 손실을 흡수하고 선순위채를 보호하는 역할을 담당하므로 후순위채 트란셰가 충분히 확보되는 경우 선순위채의 손실 가능성이 매우 낮아 선순위채를 안전자산으로 분류 가능

ㅇ 경제위기 발생 시 개별 국가 발행 채권이 안전자산의 지위를 상실하더라도 선순위채(senior bond)는 안전자산의 지위 유지가 가능하여 신흥국이 발행하는 안전자산의 규모와 질을 확대할 수 있음

□ GloSBies 발행으로 기존 선진국 위주의 비대칭적인 안전자산 공급이 다변화되면서 안전자산 선호 현상(flight- to- safety) 발생 시 나타나는 선진국으로의 자본쏠림을 막고 신흥국에 일정 정도 머물게 할 수 있을 것으로 기대

ㅇ  자본이동의 다변화는 개별 국가 및 국제금융 시스템의 복원력 향상에 기여하는 가운데 낮은 비용, 자체 안정화 기능 측면 등에서도 강점

―  특히 국가부도 리스크 증가 → 국채가격 하락 → 은행 손실 확대 → 정부의 은행 구제금융 가능성 증가 → 국채가격 추가 하락으로 이어지는 국가 및 은행 리스크의 악순환(diabolic loop)에서도 탈피 가능(Brunnermeier et al.(2016))

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<2세션 논문>

OECD의 자연실업률 추정치를 이용한 실업률 이력현상 분석 

(Hysteresis in Unemployment : 

Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate) 

Laurence M. Ball (Johns Hopkins University), 

Joern Onken (University College London)

□ 통화정책을 포함한 총수요 결정요인이 자연실업률에 미치는 영향에 관하여 거시경제학 내 상반된 견해가 존재 

ㅇ 기존의 주류 거시경제학에서는 노동시장의 불완전성에 따라 자연실업률이 결정되므로 통화정책이나 다른 총수요 결정요인들이 자연실업률에는 영향을 주지 않는다는 관점을 제시 

― 많은 중앙은행들이 기존 이론을 바탕으로 통화정책이 영향을 미칠 수 없는 자연실업률보다는 영향을 미칠 수 있는 인플레이션에 초점을 맞추어 통화정책을 운용 

ㅇ 그러나, 일부 경제학자들은 실업률의 단기 변동이 자연실업률을 변화시킨다는 견해, 즉, 실업률의 이력현상^*(hysteresis)이 존재한다는 상반된 견해를 제시

* 특정 변수가 외부충격의 영향을 받아 변동한 후 충격이 사라지더라도 원래 수준으로 회복하지 못하는 현상. 본고에서는 총수요변동이 실업률의 단기적 변동을 일으킬 뿐 아니라 자연실업률에 영구적인 변화를 초래하는 현상을 의미

□ 본고는 OECD 29개국의 데이터를 이용한 분석을 통해 실업률의 이력현상에 대한 실증적 근거를 제시

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ㅇ OECD의 2002~2019년 기간 중 자연실업률 추정치를 이용하여 OECD 29개국 실업률 동학을 분석하고 이력현상의 존재여부 및 이력 정도^*(degree of hysteresis)를 추정 

* 이력 정도는 실업률 충격이 자연실업률에 미친 장기적 영향을 장기실업률에서 이탈한 실업률 변동량의 누적치로 나눈 값으로 정의되며, 이력 정도가 클수록 이력 현상이 강하게 나타나 장기실업률이 더 크게 조정됨을 의미

□ 실증분석^* 결과, 실업률이 충격을 받아 변동하면 자연실업률도 실업률이 이동한 방향으로 영구적으로 조정되는 현상이 존재하는 것으로 나타남 

* 양의 충격과 음의 충격이 실업률에 대칭적인 영향을 미친다는 가정을 전제로 한 ‘기본 분석’과 비대칭성을 허용한 ‘비대칭 분석’으로 나누어 분석 

ㅇ (기본 분석) 이력 정도(degree of hysteresis)를 추정한 결과, 실업률이 장기실업률로부터 1년간 1%p만큼 벗어난 경우 장기실업률은 0.16%p만큼 같은 방향으로 변동하는 것으로 나타남 

ㅇ  (비대칭 분석) 비대칭성을 허용한 분석 결과에서는 실업률이 양의 충격을 받았을 경우 이력 정도(degree of hysteresis)가 0.13로 나타난 반면, 음의 충격을 받았을 경우 0.29로 나타나 실업률 하락 시에 자연실업률의 이력현상이 상승 시보다 더 강하게 나타나는 것으로 추정됨 

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<3세션 논문 1>

빚으로 진작된 수요

(Indebted Demand)

Atif Mian (Princeton University), Ludwig Straub (Harvard University), 

Amir Sufi (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business) 

□ 경제주체 간 한계소비성향의 차이로 인해 소득 상위계층의 저축자금은 금융시장에서 다양한 금융상품으로 운용되어 소득 하위계층의 대출로 이어짐 

ㅇ 미국 대출의 상당한 부분이 자산 분포 상위 1%가 공급한 자금으로 이루어진 금융상품이며, 이러한 금융상품의 상당 부분이 간접적으로 하위 90%에 대출되어 가계부채를 증가시킴^* 

* 1982~2007년 중 미국 자료 분석 결과 자산분포 기준 상위 1% 계층의 저축자금 공급이 하위 90% 가계부채 증가의 30%를 설명

ㅇ 소득 불평등 확대로 인한 자산 분포 상위 계층의 저축 증가는 금리 하락을 통해 하위 계층의 부채를 더욱 증가시켜 빚으로 진작된 수요(indebted demand)를 창출

□ 논문에서는“Indebeted Demand”의 유발경로와 경제에 미치는 다양한 부정적인 영향을 이론적으로 보임

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ㅇ 경제주체 간 한계소비성향의 차이로 채무자와 채권자 간의 저축률이 상이함을 이론적으로 보여줄 수 있는 틀을 제시하여, 1980년 이후 채권자의 높은 저축률로 인해 이자율이 하락하며, 낮아진 금리는 더 많은 부채를 유발시킴을 이론적으로 증명

ㅇ 완화적 통화 및 재정정책은 단기적으로 빚에 의해 진작된 수요를 창출하여 부채에 기반한 호황(debt- financed boom)을 발생시킬 수 있으나, 장기화할 경우 확대된 부채를 감당하기 위한 조세증가, 지출삭감, 원리금상환 부담 증가로 이어지면서 수요위축과 자연이자율 하락을 초래

□ 반복적인 완화적 거시정책으로  부채규모가 크게 확대되거나 소득불평등이 악화되는 경우 자연이자율이 실효 하한을 하회하는 상황이 지속되면서 경제가 부채에 기반한 유동성 함정(debt- driven liquidity trap) 또는 부채 함정(debt trap)에 빠질 우려

ㅇ  이 경우 부채에 기반한 수요진작정책을 지속하는 것은 상황을 악화시키므로 소득불평등을 완화하고 부채규모를 줄일 수 있는 제도 및 구조개선 정책, 재분재 정책, 거시건전성 정책 등을 복합적으로 활용할 필요 

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<3세션 논문 2>

부유층의 저축과잉

(The Saving Glut of the Rich)

Atif Mian (Princeton University), Ludwig Straub (Harvard University), 

Amir Sufi (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business) 

□ 1980년 이후 미국의 가계저축률은 소득계층별로 매우 상이한 양상을 보이는데, 소득 상위 1% 계층의 국민총소득대비 저축률이 1963~1982년중 5.3%에서 2008~2016년 중 8.5%로 크게 상승

ㅇ 이는 동 기간 중 소득 하위 10% 가계의 저축률이 5%p 내외 하락한 점, 여타 소득계층의 저축률은 비교적 안정적인 모습을 보인 점과는 대조적

□ 소득계층별 저축을 구성 항목별로 분해해 보면 소득 상위 1% 가계의 저축은 주로 금융자산 보유 형태로 늘어난 반면, 하위 10% 가계의 저축률 하락은 차입 확대 및 금융자산 보유 축소가 주도

ㅇ 특히 저소득층의 저축 감소는 1998~2007년 기간 중 두드러졌는데 이는 완화적 금융여건에 힘입어 차입을 통한 주택구매에 적극 나선 데 기인

ㅇ 반면 고소득층의 경우 동 기간 중 저축률이 오히려 큰 폭으로 상승

□ 미국 가계 및 정부 부채에 대한 청구권의 최종 귀속 주체를 분석한 결과, 고소득 가계의 과잉 저축이 저소득 가계 및 정부 부채의 중요한 재원이 된 것으로 나타남

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ㅇ 고소득 가계가 가입한 뮤츄얼펀드가 주택저당증권(MBS)을 매입할 경우 궁극적으로 고소득층의 저축이 여타 가계의 차입 재원이 된 것으로 볼 수 있음

ㅇ 또한 고소득 가계가 미 국공채에 대한 직접투자 또는 연기금 등을 통한 간접투자 주체가 되기도 함

ㅇ 실제로 1983~2016년 중 소득 상위 1% 가계가 보유한 금융자산의 국민총소득 대비 비율은 4.4%p 상승하였는데, 이중 절반 이상(2.4%p)이 가계 및 정부 부채에 대한 청구권 형태로 증가

ㅇ 반면 동 기간 중 총소득대비 국내순투자가 꾸준히 하락하고 경상수지 적자가 지속된 점은 고소득층의 과잉 저축이 전통적인 실물투자 확대로 이어지지 않았음을 시사

□ 추가적으로 지역별(state- level) 실증분석을 통해 이러한 고소득층의 저축 과잉이 가계 간 소득 불평등 확대와 밀접한 관련이 있음을 제시 

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<4세션 논문>

기술변화와 중앙은행

(Technological Changes and Central Banking)

David Andolfatto (Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

□ 본 연구는 기술발전으로 인해 나타난 금융시스템 변화와 중앙은행의 역할 문제를 탈중앙화된 기록유지 측면과 CBDC(Central Bank Digital Currency) 측면으로 구분하여 논의

ㅇ 인터넷 및 탈중앙화된 기록유지(decentralized record- keeping)는 탈중앙화 금융(DeFi, decentralized finance)을 표방한 암호화폐를 등장시킨 두 가지 혁신 요인

ㅇ 암호화폐는 기존의 화폐 및 지급결제 영역을 벗어난 새로운 형태의 화폐로서 중앙은행은 암호화폐와의 화폐 경쟁에 직면

□ 대표적인 암호화폐인 비트코인은 신뢰성 있는 중개기관에 의존하지 않고 블록체인 기술을 사용하여 신뢰를 구축하는 디지털화폐 시스템에 기반

ㅇ 비트코인의 출현 이전에도 상당한 비중의 화폐가 디지털 형태로 공급되어 왔으며 그 결제는 신뢰성 있는 중개기관(예: 은행)을 통해 수행됨

ㅇ 비트코인 운영 메커니즘인 블록체인 기술은 가치의 보관과 이전을 공동 이용자의 합의 및 기록을 통해 유지함으로써 중개기관 없이도 이중지불(double spending)^* 문제를 해결

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* 화폐를 복제하여 복수 거래자에게 가치를 지불하는 행위로서 복제가 어려운 실물화폐에비해 전자화폐는 신뢰성 있는 제3의 중개자가 없을 때 위·변조가 용이

ㅇ 암호화폐 지지자들은 비트코인 시스템이 컴퓨터 코드의 공개 원칙에 의해 지배된다는 점에서 기존의 금융시스템보다 투명하며 특정 세력의 사적 이익이나 정치적 이해관계에 의해 운영될 수 없음을 강조

□ 암호화폐의 확산은 CBDC 논의를 촉발

ㅇ  암호화폐는 가치 변동성이 심하고 테러, 자금세탁 등 불법행위에 사용될 수 있는 부작용이 있는 반면에 CBDC는 이런 위험을 쉽게 통제

ㅇ CBDC는 법정화폐로서 중앙은행에 의해 그 가치가 보장되며 전자적 형태로 발행되는 특성 때문에 지급, 결제 및 청산 과정이 다른 화폐시스템보다 효율적

ㅇ 이와 함께 CBDC는 핀테크 기업 등이 기존 은행과의 제휴 없이 소자본으로 사업을 진행할 수 있어 금융산업의 경쟁 및 혁신에 유리

□ 그러나 미국의 경우 CBDC 도입의 필요성에 대해서는 논의의 여지가 있음

ㅇ 대부분의 기업과 가계가 화폐를 기존 은행 계좌(디지털 형태)로 보유하고 있는 데다 예금자 보호를 통해 원리금을 보장받고 있기 때문에 CBDC 도입이 금융포용 및 금융안정에 얼마나 기여할 수 있는지에 대해서는 회의적

ㅇ CBDC 거래기록에 대한 권리를 CBDC 사용자에게 부여함으로써 데이터 소유권을 확립하고 사용을 촉진할 수도 있으나, 이는 영국 등에서 시행되는 오픈뱅킹을 통해서도 가능

ㅇ 대부분의 가계가 기존 은행 및 신용카드사를 통해 저비용의 지급결제서비스를 이용하고 있기 때문에 CBDC라는 새로운 지급결제 수단이 갖는 의미도 퇴색

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□ CBDC 도입이 가져다 줄 여타 편익과 비용에 대해서는 논의가 진행 중

ㅇ 현금을 대체하기 위해 CBDC를 도입하고 그 후 현금이 사라지면 금리의 실효하한(effective lower bound)이 없어져 마이너스 금리를 통해 유사시 경기를 진작시키는 것이 용이하다는 의견이 제기

ㅇ 은행예금 일부가 CBDC로 대체된다면 은행의 자금조달 애로로 금융중개기능이 약화될 우려가 제기되지만, 이 문제는 CBDC보다 통화정책과 금융시장 구조에 의해 더 큰 영향을 받는 사안

ㅇ 금융위기 시 은행예금이 CBDC로 급격히 유출되는 뱅크 런(bank run)이 발생하여 금융안정에 부정적 영향을 줄 수 있으나, 이 문제는 중앙은행의 자금지원 또는 CBDC 금리조정 등을 통해 방지할 수 있음

ㅇ CBDC 도입 시기가 중국에 뒤쳐진다면 미국 달러의 위상이 낮아질 수 있으므로 CBDC가 도입되어야 한다는 주장이 있으나, 중국과 달리 미국은 대규모의 경상수지 적자를 감당할 수 있어 달러의 기축통화 지위를 유지할 수 있으며, 달러표시 자산에 대한 수요가 감소하지 않고 있어 CBDC 도입을 서두를 이유는 없음

□ CBDC는 기술변화에 맞추어 중앙은행이 발행하는 새로운 형태의 법정화폐이지만 최선의 결과를 얻기 위해서는 공공과 민간의 협력이 바람직 

ㅇ 중앙은행이 광범위한 경제주체들에게 CBDC 계좌를 개설하고 지급, 결제 및 청산 과정 모두를 주관하는 것은 비현실적

ㅇ 중앙은행은 거액결제(wholesale) 영역을 관리하되 소액결제(retail) 영역에서는 민간업체와 협력을 통해 기술변화에 대응하는 것이 바람직

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3. 2022년 BOK 국제컨퍼런스 프로그램 

Bank of Korea International Conference 2022

June 2- 3, 2022, Bank of Korea, Live Streaming from Seoul (KST/UTC+9)

1. Thursday, June 2, 2022 (KST/UTC+9)

2. Friday, June 3, 2022 (KST/UTC+9)

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4. 프로그램 참가자 이력사항

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5. 프로그램 참가자 사진

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